Prepare to be surprised

‘It´s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’, variously attributed to Niels Bohr, Yogi Berra, & others

Last week’s note offered a summary view on the economic and political dynamics that will shape 2023 – based on a paper that Mike O’Sullivan and I wrote (available on request at contact@landfallstrategy.com).  We discussed the ways in which structural economic and political dynamics would play out in the year ahead. 

But outlooks for 2022 were quickly overtaken by events, most obviously Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.  So to reflect the deep uncertainty that characterises the world, our paper on 2023 concluded with some ‘wildcards’.  These wildcards are not predictions, but (in our view) plausible events.  If we have learned anything over the past few years, it is that we should be prepared for the unexpected.   

And in a period of economic and political regime change, we should be particularly careful about anchoring on recent experience.  This note offers my thoughts on some of the wildcards that we identify for next year.

‘It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so’, unknown, but often attributed to Mark Twain.

This note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/prepare-to-be-surprised