Strategic insights & briefings

We provide data-heavy insights on the nature and impact of regime change at global and national level to provide ahead of the curve insights on change in the global economy.  This is delivered through notes and briefings on the changing global context, what to expect over the next decade, and how to position to capture opportunities and to manage risks.

Fortnightly insight notes that draw out key insights and implications from the data flow and structural developments across these three thematic areas.  These notes are ~3,000 words, supported by data analysis and charts, and provide distinctive insights on emerging developments (interpreting them in the context of structural change) and implications. [A sample of these notes are available on request].

Bi-monthly global update: This chart deck (100+ slides) contains selected economic, market, and policy data/analysis that we are watching, primarily across priority thematic areas, and which provide distinctive insight into the structural changes underway.  This includes commentary to highlight the key developments and implications.

Briefings and calls to discuss the specific exposures and implications for action from structural shifts in the global economy.  These can be on a regular cadence (monthly/quarterly) as well as on an ad hoc basis to discuss specific issues in real time.  Our experience is that substantial value comes from these discussions.

Commissioned project work.  Recent examples of client project work include: the economic/market implications of weakening Fed independence; Asian exposure to a shifting US geopolitical stance; the structural outlook for the gold price; potential changes in capital allocation to the US; structural challenges and opportunities ahead for China.

This mix of products and services can be tailored and scaled to meet your specific requirements, working style, and budget.  We aim to provide a bespoke service that is flexible, valuable, and cost-efficient.

These insights and briefings to clients are generally provided on a retained basis, with several engagement options available. 

We also deliver one-off presentations on global economic and geopolitical issues to firms, investors, industry groups, conferences, and others.

Primary areas of focus

We organise our analysis and advisory services around structural dynamics in the global economy that we have identified as being deeply shaped by regime change and that will have material effects on firms and investors. 

There are several vectors of change that are of particular interest.

Rewired trade flows: Globalisation is not ending, but it is being powerfully reshaped by regime change.  Trade flows are being reshaped by geopolitical dynamics; vertically-integrated global supply chains; protectionism and strategic autonomy initiatives; aggressive mercantilism and industrial policy; new trade corridors and groupings/institutions.  This has direct implications for globally engaged firms and investors, as well as for the growth models of externally-exposed economies.

Capital wars: Intense cross-border flows of capital over the past few decades have supported US exceptionalism and shaped global economic geography.  But a changing pattern of current account surpluses in key economies will constrain the supply of this capital, reinforced by a changing risk/return profile in the US as well as new geopolitical dynamics, at the same time as public and private investment demand surges.  This will lead to new patterns of cross-border capital flows, new locations of investment and economic activity, changes in reserves composition (and the role of the USD), changed pricing across asset markets, as well as aggressive policy responses: capital controls, mandates to invest domestically, and so on. 

Government financing: Public debt is at record peacetime levels across advanced economies and beyond, and further public debt accumulation is likely.  In response, governments will increasingly change balance sheet management approaches to expand fiscal space.  On the liability side, expect fiscal rules to weaken and for tighter integration of monetary and fiscal policy; this will have substantial economic and market implications.  On the asset side, expect stepped-up use of SOEs and SWFs behind strategic priorities. 

Structural economic behaviour: The incentives facing firms and governments as a consequence of regime change will likely lead to changes in economic structure.  For example, increased investment is likely (from security and strategic autonomy to technology), there will be an increased focus on research and innovation, and so on.  These dynamics will impact on areas such as productivity, nominal GDP growth and earnings, as well as commodity demand; with strong sectoral skew.

If you would like an introductory conversation about our services, you can get in touch with us here:

Distinctive approach

We operate at the intersection of economics/geopolitics/economic policy, believing that economic policy and global flows cannot be understood without a deep understanding of geopolitics, and vice versa.  Our background and capabilities allow us to operate confidently across these various domains, as well as across the public and private sectors. 

We combine qualitative insights with detailed data analysis: much political/geopolitical work is not grounded in economic/market data, which means that claims may not be well calibrated.  We are distinctive in our reliance on combining our judgements on the global system with data, taking a Bayesian approach to understanding the nature of regime change.

We focus on practical application, with an emphasis on granular analysis and providing actionable insights.  A core part of our operating model is direct client engagement to discuss specific insights and implications in a tailored manner.

We have a global focus, with direct experience in the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and the US, which allows us to make well-informed judgements and to join dots across regions.  We also have particular insights into small advanced economies, the canaries in the mine of the global economy, which provides additional distinctive perspectives.

We provide independent advice without fear or favour, not shaped by a corporate editorial line or a need to maintain relations with governments.  We deliberately avoid group-think, providing perspectives that are distinctive, often out of consensus, and ahead of the curve.