Global briefing: Taiwan status quo/ Inflation & rates/ Rewiring global flows/ China’s headwinds/ Trump & Europe

In this week's global briefing:

1. Taiwan status quo: Taiwan’s voters re-elected the DPP but removed its legislative majority, leading to a broad continuation of the status quo but with a softer tone likely

2. Inflation & rates: The market sell-off earlier this week on a more cautious view on inflation was timely; some drivers of inflation will persist, slowing the reduction in rates

3. Rewiring global flows: China’s latest trade data confirms the start of a recovery in world trade, as well as ongoing alignment of trade flows with geopolitical affiliation

4. China’s headwinds: China’s slowing GDP growth path and contracting population places increased importance on policies to lift productivity growth

5. Trump & Europe: The strength of Mr Trump’s candidacy is focusing the minds of European leaders on the economic and security exposures to a second Trump term

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/global-briefing-taiwan-status-quo