Too big to succeed

Large national scale makes the politics of disruptive change harder to manage; smaller countries are better placed.

David Skilling16 November 2018

Red October

The global economy is in decent shape, but many of the factors that roiled markets in October are here to stay.

David Skilling2 November 2018

The shaky isles

New Zealand offers a useful perspective on moving global tectonic plates, from normalisation to trade wars.

David Skilling19 October 2018

Talk of the end of the small economy model much exaggerated

The outlook for small advanced economies remains positive, despite a more challenging global environment.

David Skilling13 October 2018

Don't believe the hype

The rumours of the end of the small economy model are much exaggerated; small advanced economies will continue to out-perform.

David Skilling5 October 2018

Sailing into the wind

Small economies continue to perform well, navigating a more challenging environment. But momentum is slowing.

David Skilling21 September 2018

Flat world no more

The US remains central to the global system, but recent events show that competition is emerging.

David Skilling7 September 2018

Here we go again

As Greece exits its bailout programme, Italy moves to centre stage. Politics is back in Europe.

David Skilling24 August 2018

Globalisation is not what it used to be

Despite tariffs & sanctions, world trade remains in decent health. But globalisation is changing.

David Skilling10 August 2018

Keep calm and carry on

Small advanced economies have more resilience to trade wars than is often thought.

David Skilling27 July 2018

The end of the beginning

After a period of skirmishing, we look to be moving into a more consequential period for the global economy.

David Skilling13 July 2018

Decreasing returns to scale

Expect economic and political turbulence as large countries adapt to the realities of limited power.

David Skilling29 June 2018

The great divergence?

Economic and political divergence is increasingly looking like the key macro theme for 2018.

David Skilling25 May 2018

War by other means

The increasingly unilateral use of economic sanctions is the new exorbitant privilege, with concerning implications.

David Skilling11 May 2018

From great to good

The IMF upgrade the global growth outlook, but small economies suggest that growth may be peaking.

David Skilling27 April 2018

On hawks, canaries, and trade wars

The small economy 'canaries in the mine' are not yet flagging particular concern about trade wars, but trade tensions are not going away

David Skilling13 April 2018

Singapore in a time of rising risks

Singapore is exposed to increased global risks due to China's recent political changes, and US/China trade tensions

David Skilling6 April 2018

Back to the future

The US/Japan trade tensions of the 1980s provide a useful perspective on how the current US/China tensions might play out. Expect ongoing economic & political turbulence.

David Skilling29 March 2018

What else is easy to win (in addition to trade wars)?

The US actions on tariffs may signal a broader set of risks to systemically important economic institutions.

David Skilling16 March 2018

The economic consequences of Mr Xi

The removal of term limits on the Chinese Presidency lifts the risk profile of China - and the world.

David Skilling2 March 2018