The nature of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan reminds of the unilateral withdrawal from the Bretton Woods arrangements 50 years ago. Big powers act like big powers.
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As the IPCC warns on global climate change, the experience of managing Covid provides a perspective on the likely policy response.
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Geopolitical competition will continue to intensify, imposing costs – but also creating strong incentives for investment in innovation.
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There is deep uncertainty as we look into a post-Covid world. Decision-making will need to respond.
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It is great to see a functional G7 again. But these economies do not have a monopoly on wisdom, and there are risks with a large country economic policy-making cartel.
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Past Covid performance is no guarantee of future success. Avoiding the winner's curse will require changes to national risk tolerance over time (& constructive paranoia).
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Inflation is shaped by political dynamics as much as economic factors, suggesting that inflation is more of a medium-term risk.
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The strength of the global recovery process varies around the world, but small advanced economies suggest that the global economy is in good shape.
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Military spending is rising, but increasingly big power competition will involve economics & technology. Countries & firms need to position for this context.
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The global economic outlook is as strong as it has been for a long time. But work is needed to ensure that the benefits are broadly shared.
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From the grounding of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal to managing Coronavirus and vaccines, recent events show that scale is not always a good thing.
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The political rupture reflected in Brexit and Trump continues to play out, now in macro policy and beyond. This policy regime change will have major consequences.
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The countries that are currently seen as the best performers in managing Covid may have faded by year end. Expect more surprises in 2021.
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From Italy to the US, large economies are adopting elements of the small economy policy playbook to manage economic and political pressures.
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Variation in the speed of vaccinations provides insight into the shape of the immediate economic recovery as well as the medium-term outlook.
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Managing economic & political relationships with China is increasingly challenging for advanced economies around the world.
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The storming of Capitol Hill this week reflects deep divisions in the US, with implications for the US and the world.
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From climate change and geopolitics to new growth models, 2021 will see widespread public and private sector innovation.
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The small economy experience provides some support for the growing confidence of markets in the global economic outlook.
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