The globalisation debate offers lessons on what to do (and what not to do) in climate change policy: address the domestic politics of the transition
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Beyond near-term inflation concerns, policy should focus on managing price pressures from structural changes in labour markets & globalisation - and net zero
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International institutions have been challenged for some time, but pressures are building. New, flexible platforms are emerging in response.
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Six months on from the grounding of a super-sized container ship, the financial stresses of China’s largest property developer cause another global risk event. And more shocks are likely.
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As we wait for a post-Covid world to arrive, we may need to adjust our expectations. And some countries will need to adjust their approaches for new Covid realities.
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The scale and duration of the Covid shock has led to structural changes in policy and business models: a post-Covid reset is more likely than mean reversion
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The nature of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan reminds of the unilateral withdrawal from the Bretton Woods arrangements 50 years ago. Big powers act like big powers.
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As the IPCC warns on global climate change, the experience of managing Covid provides a perspective on the likely policy response.
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Geopolitical competition will continue to intensify, imposing costs – but also creating strong incentives for investment in innovation.
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There is deep uncertainty as we look into a post-Covid world. Decision-making will need to respond.
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It is great to see a functional G7 again. But these economies do not have a monopoly on wisdom, and there are risks with a large country economic policy-making cartel.
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Past Covid performance is no guarantee of future success. Avoiding the winner's curse will require changes to national risk tolerance over time (& constructive paranoia).
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Inflation is shaped by political dynamics as much as economic factors, suggesting that inflation is more of a medium-term risk.
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The strength of the global recovery process varies around the world, but small advanced economies suggest that the global economy is in good shape.
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Military spending is rising, but increasingly big power competition will involve economics & technology. Countries & firms need to position for this context.
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The global economic outlook is as strong as it has been for a long time. But work is needed to ensure that the benefits are broadly shared.
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From the grounding of the Ever Given in the Suez Canal to managing Coronavirus and vaccines, recent events show that scale is not always a good thing.
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The political rupture reflected in Brexit and Trump continues to play out, now in macro policy and beyond. This policy regime change will have major consequences.
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The countries that are currently seen as the best performers in managing Covid may have faded by year end. Expect more surprises in 2021.
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