Public debt, geopolitics, & capital flows

For more evidence of regime change in the US, note this week’s striking split-screen of an unprecedented gathering of US military leadership from around the world at the same time as the US federal government was pushed towards shutdown. Despite ongoing strong US economic performance and technology leadership, the combination of changed US economic/fiscal and geopolitical dynamics will challenge the previously unquestioned ability of the US to attract substantial allocations of capital from the rest of the world.

This is just one reason to expect disruptive changes in the profile of global capital demand and supply flows over the coming years, and accompanying policy responses, with potentially seismic economic and financial effects. This note discusses seven recent developments that provide insight into some aspects of these changed capital flows. [And see a recent note for some additional context on the coming capital wars].

The full note is available here: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/public-debt-geopolitics-and-capital