Thoughts on the 2026 outlook

Reading through a small mountain of 2026 outlook documents over the past few weeks, I was struck by the relative tightness of the consensus outlook. 2026 is widely expected to look much like 2025 in terms of economic and market outcomes. This includes a general sense of optimism in the global economic and market outlook for 2026 (AI, supportive macro policy). AI is seen as the major risk factor to this broadly upbeat assessment, along with some concern about inflation.

There are many reasonable aspects in this consensus view. But this consensus underplays the consequences of the broader regime change that is underway. The key risks and opportunities for the global economy in 2026 are geopolitical and political in nature rather than primarily economic. 2026 will likely be a disruptive year of accelerating structural change in the global economic and political context.

There are of course many possible developments in the year ahead that will matter. I select five dynamics that are not sufficiently reflected in the consensus view.

The full note is available at: https://davidskilling.substack.com/p/thoughts-on-the-2026-outlook