Competing or collaborating?

Even as the G7 aligns on a common approach to China, competitive industrial policy threatens fragmentation across Western economies

David Skilling26 May 2023

Global briefing: The geopolitics of the debt ceiling/ China as peacemaker?/ Financial crisis or credit crunch?/ Weakening Western flows to China/ Sweden

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling19 May 2023

Two cheers for the new Washington Consensus

A new US approach to economic policy is being implemented in response to changed global economic & geopolitical realities

David Skilling12 May 2023

The geopolitics of the Chinese recovery/ Fiscal rules in a wartime economy/ The politics of climate change/ De-dollarisation?/ The Netherlands

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling5 May 2023

Full spectrum strategic competition

Big power strategic competition is strengthening across military, technology, economic, & finance domains, powerfully reshaping the global economy

David Skilling28 April 2023

Inflation higher for longer/ Global economic fragmentation/ Industrial policy arms race/ The geopolitics of luxury/ New Zealand

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling21 April 2023

Fast forward to a new globalisation

Economic & geopolitical factors are rapidly reshaping globalisation, creating substantial new challenges as well as growth opportunities

David Skilling14 April 2023

Global inflation & rates/ Europe goes to Beijing/ Global Britain & TPP/ Taiwan risks/ Finland

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling6 April 2023

The great contraction

After decades of expansion, the global labour force will contract as demographics turn & frictions on global flows strengthen

David Skilling31 March 2023

Mr Xi goes to Moscow/ Financial dominance & central banks/ Green industrial policy/ The economics of China’s reopening/ Switzerland

Perspectives on five things that matter this week

David Skilling24 March 2023

Move fast & break things/ Chinese decoupling/ Brexit & Northern Ireland/ Global supply chains easing?/ Israel

Five notable things I’m watching this week

David Skilling17 March 2023

Returns to scale in a wartime economy?

Thoughts on the impact of national scale on the winners and losers from global economic and political regime change

David Skilling10 March 2023

Reflections on a year of war

12 months on from Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, deep changes are underway in the global economic & political system

David Skilling24 February 2023

The economic & political consequences of Covid

Covid has had an enduring impact, from labour markets to the return of the state, despite the unwinding of some pandemic booms

David Skilling17 February 2023

A turning point in the global economy

The disruption of pandemic & war creates noise in the economic data; but there are reasons for confidence in the global economic outlook

David Skilling3 February 2023

From transitory to wartime inflation

Even as transitory inflation fades, pressures due to global strategic competition are building – shaping inflation, rates, & monetary policy

David Skilling20 January 2023

Stress testing the world

The stresses of the past few years have highlighted the strengths & weaknesses of countries in a period of regime change

David Skilling6 January 2023

Prepare to be surprised

Forecasts for 2022 – from inflation to Ukraine – were generally off the mark. So in a world of deep uncertainty, what might surprise in 2023?

David Skilling16 December 2022

War by other means: positioning for 2023

If 2022 was the ‘end of the beginning’, 2023 will be a year in which emerging global dynamics go mainstream. Position for war by other means.

David Skilling9 December 2022

When the tides goes out

Weaker world trade growth adds zero sum dynamics to the structural shifts underway in the global economic & political system.

David Skilling25 November 2022