The West has been coherent in response to Russia, but faultlines are emerging between the US & other Western-oriented countries. 2022 may be peak West.
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The experiences of small economy hubs – from Dubai to Ireland, Hong Kong, Singapore, & Switzerland – highlight the impact of a changing global economy
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Beyond the stormy economic forecasts in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, the data also capture structural changes underway in the global system
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Expect to see the state expand its role, on the back of disruptive changes in the global economic & political environment
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My travels in Europe, the Middle East, & North Africa this week showed variation in economic outlook, as well as in positioning for a new global regime
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A gap is emerging between government & firm responses to geopolitical tensions: firms are moving more slowly, creating risks
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Economic & political risks are rising around the world. But governments, firms, & investors should be looking to new opportunities as well as managing risks.
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My recent travels to New Zealand & Singapore highlighted more similarities (concerns on geopolitics, inflation) than differences between Asia & Europe
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Despite the focus on big powers and mega firms, scale is not everything in the global economy. Smaller, agile firms & countries often have an edge.
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Economies with high core inflation tend to have the tightest labour markets; monetary policy is not enough to reduce inflation
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The war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine is as much economic as military; and the economic costs are growing
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The G7, NATO, & ECB meetings this week provide a sense of the scale & scope of current global challenges, and some of the emerging responses
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Tight US monetary policy in response to surging inflation is creating issues around the global economy, with potentially lasting economic & political consequences
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Six years on from the Brexit and Trump votes, the emerging model of globalisation means that America First is likely to be enduring than hard Brexit
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The pandemic coupled with geopolitical tensions, net zero, & technology will structurally change the economic geography of globalisation.
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Economic & political volatility is rising as a new global regime emerges. Firms & governments need to position for sustained turbulence.
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Geopolitics trumped globalisation at Davos this week. But there are risks to be managed as globalisation becomes more political
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The good times of the past 30 years have created economic & political exposures for firms & countries in a changing world
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The economic and political aftershocks from Russia’s invasion continued this week, from Europe to Asia. Deep structural change is underway.
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Domestic political risks with global economic & geopolitical consequences loom large around the world from China to the US. Brace for shocks.
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